Why Palestinian Peace Talks With Sinwar and Hamas Are Doomed from the Start
Yahya Sinwar, the newly chosen leader of Hamas, is not just another name in the long list of Middle Eastern leaders embroiled in conflict — he’s a significant figure that U.S. intelligence is deeply concerned about. This isn’t without reason. Sinwar has a long history of involvement in terrorism and violent activities that have had far-reaching consequences, not just for Israel and the Palestinian territories, but also for the United States and its allies.
Sinwar is one of the founders of Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, a group that has been responsible for numerous attacks against Israel. These aren’t just small-scale skirmishes; we’re talking about orchestrated assaults that have resulted in significant loss of life and have fueled ongoing regional instability. His approach is as hardline as they come — he’s never been one for peace negotiations, always leaning into aggression as the solution.
In 2011, Sinwar was released from an Israeli prison as part of the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange. You might think after spending over two decades behind bars, he would have faded into the background. But instead, Sinwar used this as a launchpad to climb back into the upper echelons of Hamas’s leadership, quickly becoming a key figure in its military operations. His return wasn’t just a comeback; it was a signal that Hamas’s aggressive tactics were far from over.
What makes Yahya Sinwar a particular concern for U.S. intelligence is not just his history but what his leadership represents going forward. His control over Hamas has already led to an escalation in the group’s military capabilities. He’s got them armed with advanced missiles that can hit major Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem with deadly precision. But that’s not all — he’s also brought in powerful anti-tank missiles like the Russian Kornet, which can take out heavily armored vehicles with ease. And if that wasn’t enough, Sinwar has added drones and UAVs to their arsenal, perfect for spying and even launching attacks from the sky. With these upgrades, Hamas is now a bigger threat than ever, thanks to Sinwar’s relentless push to arm them to the teeth.
Needless to say, these activities not only threaten Israel, bit they destabilize the entire region, which has broader implications for global security.
But the threat isn’t confined to the Middle East. Sinwar’s actions have had a ripple effect that reaches the United States. The destabilization of the region makes it more challenging for the U.S. to maintain its strategic interests, and it also fuels anti-American sentiment, which can lead to terrorist attacks on U.S. soil or against U.S. interests abroad. The ongoing conflict also strains U.S. diplomatic efforts, making it harder to build coalitions and work towards a peaceful resolution.
There is no hope for a peaceful coexistence if leaders like Sinwar are around. A Camp David meeting with the U.S. President, Yahya Sinwar, Palestinian leadership, and Israel to talk peace and a two-state solution wouldn’t work for a few key reasons. First off, Sinwar and Hamas are totally opposed to Israel’s existence, so they’re not interested in any peace talks that involve recognizing Israel. That alone makes a two-state solution a non-starter.
Then there’s the issue of trust — or the lack of it — between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. The PA, led by Mahmoud Abbas, is more open to negotiating with Israel, but Hamas sees those talks as a sellout. This internal split makes it really hard to present a united front in any peace negotiations.
And from Israel’s side, they’re not going to the table with Hamas as long as the group continues its violent attacks and refuses to acknowledge Israel’s right to exist. This stance is backed by the Israeli government and much of the public, so any talks with Sinwar are pretty much a no-go.
Given these deep-seated positions, it’s hard to see a Camp David meeting with all these players leading to any real progress on peace or a two-state solution.
Little wonder why U.S. intelligence has been keeping a close eye on Sinwar for years, attempting various strategies to neutralize his influence. This includes everything from covert operations aimed at disrupting Hamas’s supply chains to cyber tactics intended to undermine their communication networks. However, these efforts have been met with limited success, partly because Sinwar operates in a highly fortified environment, surrounded by loyalists and supported by a population that sees him as a hero resisting Israeli occupation.
The difficulty in neutralizing Sinwar lies in his deep roots within Hamas and the broader Palestinian resistance movement. Unlike other leaders who may be more politically exposed, Sinwar has spent most of his life in the shadows, making him a difficult target for direct action. Moreover, any attempt to eliminate him could lead to significant backlash, not just in Gaza but across the Muslim world, potentially sparking further violence.
What’s clear is that Yahya Sinwar is not just a regional problem; he’s a global one. His leadership in Hamas poses a direct threat to the security of Israel, the stability of the Middle East, and by extension, the national security of the United States. As long as he remains in power, the region — and the world — will continue to grapple with the consequences of his hardline approach to conflict. And that’s why U.S. intelligence is so invested in trying to counteract his influence, even if it’s an uphill battle.
Robert Morton is a member of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) and authors the ‘Corey Pearson- CIA Spymaster’ series. Check out his latest spy thriller, ‘Mission of Vengeance.